RunningBall continues Partnership with CIES
Neuchâtel/Hünenberg, Switzerland, 6 September 2011 - The most probable national champions in Europe’s five top leagues in 2012 will be Chelsea, Barcelona, Inter Milan, Bayern Munich and Paris St-Germain. These are the findings of the statistics model developed by the CIES Football Observatory, which combines academic research with the data-collecting expertise and vast database of RunningBall, the Number One in the real-time sports information sector. All predictions can be accessed for free via the CIES Football Observatory website at www.eurofootplayers.org
Following last year’s successful experience, the CIES Football Observatory and RunningBall have teamed up again to forecast the final tables of the big-5 European leagues: the English Premier League, the Spanish Primera Liga, Italy’s Serie A, the French Ligue 1 and the German Erste Bundesliga. Predictions are based on the detailed analysis of squad composition. Contrary to the vast majority of other prediction models, only biographic data are taken into account. Past results of clubs are not considered.
For the 2010/2011 season, the model correctly predicted league triumphs for Manchester United in England, FC Barcelona in Spain and LOSC Lille Métropole in France. Internazionale Milan in Italy and FC Bayern Munich in Germany fell short their predicted potential but are now again touted for the top spot.
Raffaele Poli, Chief researcher of the CIES Football Observatory, said: “We are delighted that our foray beyond previous frontiers of knowledge in the area of professional football has yielded such encouraging results. Now that the 2011/2012 season has started in almost all of the 5 Top European Leagues we are very eager to see how our statistical model will fare in its second year.”
RunningBall CEO, Giancarlo Tottoli, commented: “Running Ball is very pleased to continue its partnership with the CIES Football Observatory and to put its know-how and data assets at the disposal of scientific research. After more than 150 years in the history of the modern game, our tools and experience contribute to offer yet new and exciting insights into football that will certainly also fascinate fans all over the world.”
The scientific statistics model is structured around three axes: practice, international experience and stability. Practice consists of the number of matches played as a professional during the last five seasons, with particular emphasis on recent and big-5 league games. International experience consists of the percentage of national A-team matches played during past year, weighted according to results obtained by the country represented. Stability is the overall average stay of players in their current team, with more importance given to the number of seasons in the first-team squad for defenders and midfielders.
By assembling these criteria, stars are assigned to clubs in each league. Teams with three stars have a squad strong enough to win their championship; those with two stars can claim a European place; while the main objective for those with one star is to avoid relegation. For the first time, the researchers have also identified clubs that during the past two seasons have obtained better results than those predicted. These usually overachieving clubs are indicated with a heart.
CIES Football Observatory and RunningBall have also joined efforts for the recently published Annual Review of Football Players’ Labour Market, which follows the evolution of the demographic characteristics of the players of the top European leagues. An excerpt of the report can be downloaded for free at www.eurofootplayers.org/-Publications
About the CIES Football Observatory
The CIES Football Observatory was set up in 2005 by Drs. Raffaele Poli and Loïc Ravenel under the name of the Professional Football Players Observatory (PFPO). Since 2011, it is one of the cornerstones of the vast CIES Observatory project, dedicated to the statistical analysis of sport in all its diversity. As well as the realisation of two annual reports, the CIES Football Observatory regularly carries out mandates for various stakeholders of the football industry. Our team of researchers is notably specialised in the demographic study of the footballers’ labour market, performance analysis of team and player levels, as well as in the elaboration of predictive models to determine the outcome of competitions.
About RunningBall (www.rball.com)
Years of experience, industry-specific know-how and a global cross-linked structure make RunningBall the Number One in the real-time sports information sector. As a leading supplier of computer-aided match analyses, RunningBall, through its extensive network of 1,100 scouts, covers over 35,000 football games a year from 70 countries, including competitions in other sports, such as basketball and most recently snooker. Apart from bookmakers, the most important market for information supplied by RunningBall is the world of media, football associations and clubs as well as university research institutions.
